Unbounding the Future:
the Nanotechnology Revolution
Afterword
The human race is approaching the great historical transition
to thorough, inexpensive control of the structure of matter, with
all that implies for medicine, the environment, and our way of
life. What happens before and during that transition will shape
its direction, and with it the future.
Is this worth getting excited about? Look at some of the
concerns that bring people together for action:
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- AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, heart disease, lung
disease, cancer . . .
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Each of these issues mobilizes great effort. Each will be
utterly transformed by nanotechnology
and its applications. For many of these issues, nanotechnology
offers tools that can be used to achieve what people have been
striving to accomplish. For many of these same issues, the abuse
of nanotechnology could obliterate everything that has been
achieved.
A good companion to the precept "Think globally, act
locally" is "Think of the future, act in the
present." If everyone were to abandon short-term problems
and today's popular causes, the results would be disastrous. But
there is no danger of that. The more likely danger is the
opposite. The world is heading straight for a disruptive
transition with everything at stake, yet 99.9 percent of human
effort and attention is going into either short-term concerns or
long-term strategies based on a fantasy-future of lumbering
twentieth-century technology.
What is to be done? For people more concerned with feeling
good than with doing good, the answer is simple: Go for
the warm feeling that comes from adding one more bit of support
to an already-popular cause. The gratification is immediate, even
if the contribution is small. For people more concerned with
doing good—who can feel good only if they live up to their
potential—the answer is less simple: To do the most good,
find an important cause that is not already buoyed up by
a cheering multitude, a project where one person's contribution
almost automatically makes a big difference.
There is, today, an obvious choice for where to look. The
potential benefits and drawbacks of nanotechnology generate a
thousand areas for research, discussion, education,
entrepreneuring, lobbying, development, regulation, and the
rest—for preparation and for action. A person's
contributions can range from career commitment to verbal support.
Both can make a difference in where the world ends up.
Opinion Matters
What people do depends on what they believe. The path to a
world prepared to handle nanotechnology begins with the
recognition that nanotechnology is a real prospect.
What would be the response to a new idea as broad as
nanotechnology, if it were true? Since it doesn't fall into any
existing technical specialty, it wouldn't be anyone's job to
provide an official, authoritative evaluation. Advanced molecular
manufacturing can't be worked on in the lab today, so it
wouldn't matter to scientists playing the standard
careers-and-funding game. Still, some scientists and engineers
would become interested, think about it, and lend support. Science
News, covering the first major conference on the subject,
would announce that "Sooner or later, the Age of
Nanotechnology will arrive." This is, in fact, what has
happened.
But what if the idea were false? Some curious scientist or
engineer would soon point out a fatal error in the idea. Since
the sweeping implications of nanotechnology make many people
uncomfortable, a good counterargument would spread fast, and
would soon be on the lips of everyone who would prefer to dismiss
the whole thing.
No such counterargument has been heard. The most likely reason
is that nanotechnology is a sound idea. Reactions have been
changing from "That's ridiculous" to "That's
obvious." The basic recognition of the issue is almost in
place.
When nanotechnology emerges from the world of ideas to the
world of physical reality, we will need to be prepared. But what
does this require? To understand what needs to be done today, it
is best to begin with the long term and then work back to the
present.
Where We Will Need to Be
When the world is in the process of assimilating molecular
manufacturing, years from now, it would be best if people were
ready and if the world situation favored peaceful, cooperative
applications. Balanced international progress would be better
than dominance by any nation. Cooperative development would be
better than technological rivalry. A focus on civilian goals
would be better than a focus on military goals. A well-informed
public supporting sound policies would be better than a startled
public supporting half-baked schemes.
All these goals will be best served if politicians aren't
forced to act like idiots—that is, if the state of public
opinion permits them to make the right decisions, and perhaps
even makes bad decisions politically costly. The basic objective
is straightforward: a world in which as many people as possible
have a basic understanding of what is happening, a picture of how
it can lead to a better future, and a broad understanding of what
to do (and not to do) to reach that future. The outlines of a
positive scenario would then look something like this:
Environmental groups and agencies have thought through the
issues raised by nanotechnology, and know what applications they
want to promote and what abuses they want to prevent. Likewise,
medical associations, associations of retired persons, and the
Social Security Administration have thought through the issues
raised by dramatically improved medical care and economic
productivity, and are ready with policy recommendations. Business
groups have done likewise with economic issues, and business
watchdog groups are ready to expose policies that merely serve
special interests. Labor groups have considered the impact of a
deep, global economic restructuring on the jobs and income of
their members, and have proposals for cushioning the shock
without holding down productivity. Religious leaders have
considered the moral dimensions of many applications, and are
ready with advice. Military analysts and arms control analysts
have done the painstaking work of thinking through strategic
scenarios, and have developed an agreed-on core of policies for
maintaining stability. International committees and agencies have
made the new technologies a focus of discussion and planning, and
backed by a healthy climate of opinion, they make international
cooperation work.
Overall, supported by a framework of sensible public opinion
and sensible politics, the complex process of adapting to change
is working rather well. In field after field, group after group
has put in the hard work needed to come up with policies that
would advance their real interests without wrecking someone
else's interests. This is possible more often than most would
have expected, because molecular manufacturing makes possible so
many positive-sum choices. There are still big battles, but there
is also a large core of agreement.
In this time of transition, some people are actively involved
in developing and guiding the technologies, but most people act
as citizens, consumers, workers, friends, and family members.
They shape what happens in the broader world by their votes,
contributions, and purchases. They shape what happens in their
families and communities by what they say, what they do, and
especially by the educational investments they have made or
supported. By their choices, they determine what nanotechnology
means for daily life.
How We Can Get There
A world like this will require years of preparation. What can
people do over the coming years to help this sort of world
emerge, to improve the prospects for a peaceful and beneficial
transition to new technologies? For the time being, the main task
is to spread information.
People within existing organizations can nudge them toward
evaluating nanotechnology and molecular manufacturing. A good
start is to introduce others in the organization to the concepts,
and talk through some of their implications. Follow-up activities
will depend on the group, its resources, and its purposes.
For the time being, drafting of new regulations, lobbying of
Congress, and the like all seem premature. Getting nanotechnology
into the planning process, though, seems overdue. We invite
existing organizations with concerns regarding medicine, the
economy, the environment, and other issues of public policy to
put nanotechnology on their agendas, and to join in debating and
ultimately implementing sensible policies.
Some groups are doing relevant research work. Many could bias
their choice of projects to favor goals in the direction of molecular
systems engineering. For nanotechnology to be taken really
seriously, some research group will have to build a reasonably
capable molecular
manipulator or a primitive assembler.
This will require an interdiscipinary team, years of work, and a
total cost unlikely to exceed one tenth that of a single flight
of the U.S. Space Shuttle.
Other researchers can help by providing further theoretical
studies of what advanced molecular manufacturing and
nanotechnology will make possible. These studies can help groups
know what to anticipate in their planning.
Some scientists and engineers will want to steer their careers
into the field of nanotechnology. More students will want to
study a combination of physics, chemistry, and engineering that
will prepare them to contribute.
We encourage people of common sense and goodwill to become
involved in developing nanotechnology. For those who have—or
can gain—the necessary technical backgrounds, becoming
involved with its development is an excellent way to influence
how it is used. For better or for worse, technical experts in a
field have a disproportionate influence over related policies.
During these years, there will be a growing need for
grass-roots organizations aimed at public education and building
a base for political action. Having a few thousand people ready
to write five letters to Congress in some crucial year could make
the difference between a world that works and a world destroyed
by the long-term effects of a shortsighted bill.
What happens will depend on what people do, and what people do
will depend on what they believe. The world is overwhelmingly
shaped by the state of opinion: people's opinions about what will
and won't happen, what will and won't work, what will and won't
prove profitable or beneficial for themselves, for their
families, for their businesses, for their communities, for the
world. This state of opinion—as expressed in what people say
to each other, and whether their actions conform to their
words—shapes decisions day to day. During these years, it
will matter greatly what people are saying to one another about
the future, and how to make it work.
Getting Started
With help from new technologies, we can renew the
world—not make it perfect, not eliminate conflict, not
achieve every imaginable dream, yet clear away many afflictions,
both ancient and modern. With good preparation, we can perhaps
even avoid creating too many new afflictions to take their place.
Who is responsible for trying to bring this about? Those who
want to fight poverty, to earn their share of the benefits to
come, to join in a great adventure, to meet people who care about
the future, to save species, to heal the Earth, to heal the sick,
to be at the cutting edge, to build international cooperation, to
learn about technology, to fight dangers, to change the
world—not necessarily all together, or all at once.
To help deal with the main problem today, lack of knowledge,
you can encourage friends to read up on the subject. If you've
liked this book, please lend it.
The Foresight Institute publishes information
and sponsors conferences
on nanotechnology and its consequences. It provides a channel for
news, technical information, and discussions of public policy,
and it can help put you in contact with active people and
organizations. To stay in touch with developments that will shape
our future, please write or call:
The Foresight Institute
PO Box 61058
Palo Alto, CA 94306
Voice: 415-917-1122
Fax: 415-917-1123
electronic mail: foresight@foresight.org.
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