Foresight Update 24
Page 2
A publication of the Foresight Institute
 Scientific
American without the Science:
Lengthy Story Launches Ad Hominem Attack
[Editor's Note: For an update and
overview of this debate, now in its fourth round of discussion,
see http://www.foresight.org/SciAmDebate/SciAmOverview.html]
Scientific American staff writer Gary Stix attended
last fall's Foresight
Conference in Palo Alto. He used that event as a springboard
to launch a wholly unscientific attack on nanotechnology
and Foresight Institute. Built around ad hominem attack
and undefendable quotations lifted from World Wide Web sources,
the news story concludes that nanotechnology involving a general
purpose assembler is akin to "Cargo Cult Science," a
pathology described by the late Nobel Laureate Richard Feynman.
His son, Carl Feynman, has written a letter to Scientific
American objecting to their misuse of his father's
essay (see http://www.foresight.org/SciAmDebate/SciAmLetters.html).
As Carl points out, Richard Feynman saw great promise in
nanotechnology, and considered it wholly achievable. We're
waiting to see if they will publish his and other
pro-nanotechnology letters they have received from the science
community.
Meanwhile, for those interested in a vigorous rebuttal to the Scientific
American news story, visit http://www.foresight.org/SciAmDebate/SciAmResponse.html
on the World Wide Web. There, Ralph Merkle has done a splendid
job of explaining the technological aspects of the field clearly
and precisely, while dismantling the story. An email version can
be requested from foresight@foresight.org
Foresight Chairman Eric Drexler commented, "Over the last
twenty years, the intellectual quality of Scientific
American has visibly declined, a circumstance that must
demoralize the better members of its staff. This decline appears
in the level of writing, in the displacement of informative
diagrams by decorative illustrations, and in the dilution of
science and technology coverage with business and politics.
"With the rise of the Web, however, the decay of general
science publications matters less and less. The Web opens a fresh
channel for publication on science and technology, one dominated
not by organizations entrenched in their printing and
distribution systems, pursuing sales down into the swamps, but
rather by a free exchange of ideas and responses. On the Web,
colorful pictures and biased reporting can't push aside more
serious explorations of the complex dangers and opportunities
presented by the real world."
Regarding some of the less technical matters raised in the
Scientific American article, Eric confirms his view that
"milk really does have merit as an additive to iced tea, but
not with lemon," and notes that, whatever the accuracy of
the comparisons made by Mr. Stix, it is true that as a child he
was fond of Mr. Peabody, and "still admires him for his
thoughtfulness, responsibility, doggish loyalty, and
time-spanning curiosity."
"...One
Very Large Step for Mankind"
by Lew Phelps
Economic and political constraints have diminished the scope
and reach of America's space exploration and development program.
Many people seeking to increase long-term investment in space
infrastructure, and make space travel more cost-effective, are
looking toward nanotechnology as a means to achieve those goals.
Recent developments in this area include:
- A major report to the board of the Space
Studies Institute, summarized in SSI's Update newsletter
(Fourth Quarter 1995) by Dr. George Friedman, executive
director of SSI.
- A paper presented at SSI's May 1995 Space Manufacturing
Conference, on the topic Minimizing the Initial
Space Manufacturing Base, by Steve Vetter, Senior
Advisor, Space Studies Institute, and an active
participant in Foresight Institute affairs.
- A session at the Space Manufacturing Conference on the
topic of Advanced Technologies, also chaired by Vetter.
- Publication by Thomas L. McKendree, President of the
Molecular Manufacturing Shortcut Group, of a paper
entitled Planning Scenarios for Space Development,
in which he applies scenario planning methods to key
issues of space development.
The Space Studies Institute report provides recommendations
for continuing research to the SSI Board. Removing weight (and
also size) from things that must be sent off-planet is an obvious
means to advance the prospects of space development, since the
cost of lifting a pound to orbit hasn't declined significantly in
decades, the report says. "The ultimate leverage is achieved
with a molecular nanotechnology-based self-replicating
system," the report says. It recognizes that getting there
won't be easy; it "will require at least two types of
breakthrough to accomplish the actual synthesis of molecular
nanotechnology devices useful for space and the achievement of
real-world machine self-replication.
Based on the report, SSI's board approved four research
initiatives, including "Molecular Nanotechnology for
Space" (MNTS), for which the principal investigator will be
Tom McKendree. The initiative is a Ph.D. research project planned
for completion in the spring of 1997. McKendree's work will be
supported by his employer, Hughes Electronics. He is addressing
two major inter-related issues regarding the High Frontier- space
manufacturing and space transportation.
He will begin with established "location theory" models
which support decisions regarding the geographic placement of
terrestrial factories as a function of the manufacturing
investments and the locations and costs of all resource inputs as
well as market outputs. This model will then be expanded to space
with its analogous but complex costs and timing constraints for
astrodynamic maneuvers. Finally, the impacts of molecular
nanotechnology will be assessed.
The molecular nanotechnology impacts on space transportation to
be examined include lower-cost conventional rockets, feasible
skyhooks and momentum transfer tethers, and ultrathin solar
sails. The MNT impacts on manufacturing to be examined include
low cost, multiproduct manufacturing, minimal tooling,
high-strength structures, synthesis of "vitamin parts,"
and self-replication.
The other SSI research initiatives include Sub-Kilogram
Intelligent Robots, Accelerated Near Earth Object Discovery, and
Quest for Self-Replicating Systems.
Minimizing the Initial Space Manufacturing Base by
Steve Vetter notes that the cost of opening the High Frontier is
very dependent on the cost of transporting the initial mining and
manufacturing facilities from the Earth. This cost is closely
related to the mass of these facilities. His paper examines what
limits are encountered as one tries to shrink the mass of the
initial base. Solutions are proposed to break through or work
around each limit as it is encountered. "Finally, we come to
the conclusion that the only real limit is at the molecular
level," Vetter writes. "This leads to the realization
that building things from the bottom up, with atomic precision,
is not only possible, but highly advantageous to the goal of
opening the high frontier. This work is based partly on research
in minimizing the mass of a solar power satellite,
lunar-material-insensitive SPS designs, robots, self-replicating
systems, and other related areas of technology." The heavily
referenced paper assumes no new science, but is based on
projections of scientifically-understood technological progress.
Advanced Technologies discussions at the SSI 1995 annual meeting
included presentation of four papers, including Vetter's topic
discussed above. Another with nanotechnology implications was
Bruce Mackenzie's discussion of "Bootstrapping Space
Communities with Micro Rovers and High-Tensile Boot Laces."
(The latter term refers to tethers and cable-like links between a
planetary surface and an orbiting platform.) "The tethers
make use of expected advances in material science," Vetter
commented. "The better material you have, the more efficient
tether you can have."
Mackenzie's proposal looked at mass requirements, and determined
that to keep the system running efficiently, you would have to
send substantial weight into space to keep the angular momentum
balanced with (mined and manufactured) products going to the
surface, about as much mass would have to be lifted into orbit.
"Basically, we can probably bootstrap up a space
manufacturing facility, with just a few hundred kilograms of
equipment, plus a few tons of tether and ballast and some ability
to do some processing at some other point, like at a low Earth
orbit space station." The system requires not only efficient
tethers (manufactured, no doubt, from atomically precise
materials), but also self-replicating devices that could copy
themselves a number of times, then convert to mining and
manufacturing duties. The need for nanoscale computing devices is
also clear.
Planning Scenarios for Space Development, Tom
McKendree's paper, published by the American Institute of
Aeronautics and Astronautics, uses the scenario planning approach
advanced by Foresight Institute Advisory Board member Peter
Schwartz (President of Global Business Network). Scenarios are
fictional representations of alternative futures, focused on
particular issues. McKendree proposes a "Slow and
Planned" scenario and a "Sooners" scenario.
In "Slow and Planned," space development evolves
gradually, with major institutional players (governments and
aerospace corporations) gradually paying more attention to
molecular nanotechnology's development and capabilities. Private
ownership of extraterrestrial real estate becomes a significant
issue, and a market develops to allocate rights to carbonaceous
solar system bodies that have been distributed to all adult
citizens of the world. Large corporations accumulate development
rights in space, paving the way for actual (gradual) exploration
of the High Frontier. The scenario's key features are relatively
slow development of molecular nanotechnology capability, and a
high level of planning. Its central feature is a well-conceived
set of "rules of the road" for space development.
"Sooners" envisions an extraterrestrial land rush based
on Internet distribution of information that allows small players
to build rocket probes and self-replicating manufacturing
capability very inexpensively. Before large institutions
understand what's happened, every developable asteroid in the
solar system is claimed, developed, and colonized. It's a
disorganized, almost anarchic path to space development, but it
occurs faster and more completely than the highly-planned path.
The scenario's key features are relatively fast development of
molecular nanotechnology capability, and a low level of planning.
It shows what might happen if the ability to go into space
precedes creation of appropriate "rules of the road."
Readers interested in using nanotechnology for space development
should point their Web browser at: http://www.islandone.org/MMSG/,
the home page of the Molecular Manufacturing Shortcut Group, a
chapter of the National Space Society.
Japanese
"Atomcraft Project" Outlines Major Goals,
 Publishes Interim Report
In its third interim activity report, the Aono Atomcraft Project
of Japan outlined its goals and technical results. The Atomcraft
Project is sponsored by the Exploratory Research for Advanced
Technology (ERATO)
program of the Research Development Corporation of Japan (JRDC).
The project was begun in 1989.
The coined word used in the project name, "Atomcraft,"
expresses "a new world of atomic-scale science and
technology, including the creation of artificial micromaterials,
quasi-molecules and other customized atomic arrangements which
exhibit novel electronic, material and optical properties.
Although only a dream a decade ago, this is now an actively
pursued area of research, thanks to the invention of the scanning
tunneling microscope (STM) by Binning and Rohrer," says
Atomcraft Project Director Masakazu Aono in the report's
introduction.
"Even though the STM was originally invented to observe
individual atoms, it is also useful for manipulating individual
atoms by carefully controlling the local interactions between the
probe tip and the sample appropriately. In fact, several
preliminary demonstrations suggest the power of this approach.
Challenges remain, however, in clearly understanding the physical
mechanisms involved and in many issues related to technological
feasibility. Our project has been organized to perform systematic
studies to overcome such scientific and technological hurdles and
apply these results to the fields mentioned above," Aono
says.
The project consists of three groups:
Basic Analysis Group:
Atomcraft attaches importance to the close cooperation between
experimentalists and theorists, so this group consists mainly of
theorists, to balance the project's large number of
experimentalists. "The theorists are making various
calculations to interpret experimental results and design
promising experiments for atomcraft. In an experimental subgroup
an apparatus for single-atom elemental analysis is also under
construction," the report says.
Structure Control Group:
Researchers in this group are studying various possible
techniques for atomcraft, i.e., the manipulation of single atoms
and the creation of nanometer-scale structure patterns.
Specifically, these include the preparation of atomically sharp
tips made of desirable materials, the compensation of thermal
drift between tip and sample, the development of hardware and
software that can control the movement and electric parameters of
the tip in a sophisticated manner, and the preparation of sample
surfaces with desirable composition and atomic arrangement. In
addition, prototype experiments to control single electrons in
nanometer-scale structures at room temperature are also in
progress.
Surface Measurement Group:
This group is observing and analyzing various new phenomena
related to atomcraft. "One of the most important research
subjects is to clarify physical mechanisms involved in atom
manipulation. New chemistry observed under the extreme conditions
between tip and sample is also being studied. The key to these
studies is to prepare tips with desirable shape and composition
routinely with the use of an appropriate monitoring method in
situ. Another important research subject is to directly
measure the electronic properties of created novel micromaterials
and nanometer-scale structure patterns in a wide temperature
range," the report says.
For more information, including copies of the group's report
(which contains technical papers in both English and Japanese),
contact:
Aono Atomcraft Project
The Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN)
Hirosawa 2-1, Wako-shi, Saitama, 351-01 Japan; Phone
81-484-62-1111; Fax 81-484-62-4656
From Foresight Update 24, originally
published 15 April 1996.
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