Foresight Update 30
Page 1
A publication of the Foresight Institute
 Physics
Nobel Laureate Briefs
 National Science
Foundation on Nanotechnology
by Richard H. Smith, II
The National Science Foundation
began its Distinguished
Lecture Series June 16 at its headquarters in Arlington,
Virginia, with a presentation by Nobel Laureate, Dr.
Heinrich Rohrer. In the words of Ken Chong, NSF Director
for Structural Systems, Construction Processes, Mechanics and
Materials, this series of lectures was designed to "provide
cross-fertilization and to convey different ideas." Bert
Marsh, Acting Assistant Director for Engineering, introduced Dr.
Rohrer, stating that "all of us are interested in the new
field of nanotechnology." In the standing-room only audience
were over 125 interested participants, most wearing NSF name
badges.
When the talk was advertised, the official title was "The
Nanometer Age, Challenges and Choices," but Dr. Rohrer said
he should have called it "Nanotechnology - Nature's
Way." The abstract read as follows:
"The more conventional aspect of science and
technology on the nanometer (nm) scale is seen in advancing
observation and precision standards down to the atomic level
and in continued miniaturization from today's microtechnology
to tomorrow's nanotechnology. There is lots of room at the
bottom of the scale, even now, 35 years after R.
Feynman's famous lecture on reducing the size of
computers until bits are of the size of atoms. A more
adventurous approach to the nanoworld is the
assembly-scenario, where molecules and macromolecules serve
as building blocks to form complex functional units.
Miniaturization and assembly together should provide
possibilities and new ways of solving problems, namely, the
elegant way nature solves them. Crucial will be our ability
to handle nano-objects on an individual basis and to
interface them to the macroscopic world for communication and
control."
Dr. Rohrer's presentation was centered around the physical
possibilities based on current technical capabilities and highly
probable trends. In the 45-minute talk, he discussed the
continuing trend in microminiaturization and "new
possibilities and paradigms." He suggested that the end of
microminiaturization possibilities is in sight (at the kT
boundary) but that industry will not allow progress to
cease—"we need something to replace
microminiaturization." He gave the worldwide energy
consumption cost for computer storage alone ($700B/yr) as an
example of the economic forces driving the need to make things
smaller. He envisions a time in the near future when we can store
300 gigabits/cm2.
Dr. Rohrer described molecules as "perfect bottom-up
building blocks" that can be used as "pre-fab
construction units." He suggested that the big challenges
for science and technology will be "how to interface to the
molecular world", "how to create patterns for
self-assembly", and "how to get nano-tools to control
themselves."
With solid state technology (transistors) getting smaller and
simpler and chemistry producing more complex approaches, the
fields are beginning to overlap. In Dr. Rohrer's view, the basic
tools of the nanotechnology trade are beam methods such as
microscopy, lithography, and machining; local probes like
scanning tunneling microscopes and atomic force microscopes;
computational methods (the theory of the nanoscale); and
nano-materials. He thinks that local probes are the key because
they can be used both as "nano-fingers" with which to
manipulate molecules and "imagers" which allow us to
see what we have done. Citing Smalley, Eigler,
and Gimzewski
(of nano-abacus
fame) as leaders in the field, Dr. Rohrer said, "You just
have to find how nature works and then let nature work." He
suggested that understanding nature would help but that it wasn't
necessary.
Dr. Rohrer suggested that from now on, we will be required to
look at concepts such as molecular self-assembly, the
solid/liquid interface, the nano/macro interface, and distributed
mechanical/chemical/electronic processing. He concluded his
prepared remarks with the notion that the old paradigm was for
things to be "smaller, faster, and cheaper" while
tomorrow's will be "smarter, smarter, and smarter."
He addressed questions about the possibility of storing more than
one bit per atom (yes), petaflop computing (maybe, but perhaps
sufficient parallelism renders the question moot), and a 50-pound
Volkswagen (was Ralph Merkle
in the room?). He answered by waxing philosophical about a future
that is never an extrapolation of the present. "Yes",
he says, "things will be harder and lighter and faster and
cheaper and smarter." But to try to predict what the future
holds is less valuable than the process of getting there—we
learn in and from the process. Much of science comes not from
learning what we expected to learn, but from learning something
totally unexpected. It isn't the experiment or the topic that is
ultimately important, it is the people doing the science."
A final question came from Mike Roco, Program Director of the
Chemical and Transport Systems Division, who asked if the
"$65 million per year spent by NSF on nanotechnology
research" would ever pay for itself. Dr. Rohrer responded
that one could never have made a case for microtechnology based
on what it might mean to the space program. "Who knew?"
The benefits are now patently obvious but "remember, it took
17 years to replace radio tubes with transistors in only half of
the devices where they could have been used." The benefits
of nanotechnology will become self-obvious as well, he said.
Dr. Rohrer, who received his PhD in experimental physics in 1960
from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich with a
thesis on superconductivity, won the Nobel
Prize in Physics in 1986 for his invention with Gerd Binnig
of the scanning tunneling microscope. He has worked since 1963 at
IBM's Zurich Research
Laboratory. After a two-year postdoctorate at Rutgers
University, New Brunswick, NJ, he joined IBM's Zurich Research
Laboratory in 1963 as Research Staff Member. His research
interests include Kondo microelectronics systems, phase
transitions, multicritical phenomena, and scanning tunneling
microscopy. He spent a sabbatical at the University of California
in Santa Barbara, California in 1974-75. In 1987, he was awarded
the Cresson Medal of the Franklin Institute in Philadelphia. The
practical value of the invention was recognized by his induction
to the US National Inventors Hall of Fame in 1994.
Richard Smith is a Foresight Senior Associate. He is Director
of Planning and Research Administration for Georgetown University.
Nanotechnology
Conference Emerging As Biggest,
Most Significant Ever
by Lew Phelps
The Fifth
Foresight Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology is
"clearly going to be the most scientifically significant and
best attended event in Foresight Institute's history," says Ralph Merkle, cochair of the
event.
The conference is jointly chaired by Merkle, of Xerox Palo Alto
Research Center, and Al Globus
of MJR Inc./NASA, two leading researchers in the field of
nanotechnolology.
Concurrent with the Conference, Foresight will hold a first-ever
"Tutorial on
Critical Enabling Technologies for Nanotechnology,"
organized by Deepak
Srivastava of NAS/NASA.
The conference will be held November 6-8 at the Hyatt Hotel in
Palo Alto, CA. The Tutorial will be held Nov. 5 at the same
facility. Attendance for both events will be limited by facility
capacity, so early registration
is advised.
For those with long planning horizons, Foresight also has
announced plans to hold Molecular Nanotechnology conferences
annually beginning in 1998. The Sixth Foresight Conference on
Molecular Nanotechnology will be held on November 13-15, 1998, at
the Westin Hotel in Santa Clara, CA. The Tutorial will be on
November 12. The 1998 event will be cochaired by Globus and
Srivastava of NASA.
The Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology is a meeting of
scientists and technologists working in fields leading toward
molecular nanotechnology: thorough three-dimensional structural
control of materials and devices at the molecular level.
As reported in the previous issue
of Update, scheduled speakers comprise the nation's
leading nanotechnology researchers, including Nobel Laureate Richard E. Smalley,
head of the Center for Nanoscale Science and Technology at Rice
University, who will deliver the keynote address. A full list of
invited speakers is available on the World Wide Web.
In addition to 14 invited speakers, 35 additional speakers
have been selected from among 99 abstracts submitted for
consideration, Merkle says. Indication of the scientific fervor
expected at the conference comes from abstracts
submitted before Update's press deadline by some of
the scheduled speakers:
- James K. Gimzewski of IBM Research Division, Zurich
Research Laboratory, will discuss (i) scanning tunneling
microscopy (STM) to manipulate molecules on an individual
basis; (ii) observation and manipulation of bistable
molecular conformations as switches (with potential
information storage implications), and (iii) the control
of the diffusion barriers of single molecules, which
introduces certain new elements within the concept of
directed self-assembly.
- Phaedon Avouris of the IBM Research Division will discuss
the use of the STM and atomic force microscopy (AFM) to
induce controlled local modifications of the structure
and composition of surfaces and the fabrication of
nanostructures.
- Rodney S. Ruoff of the Washington University (St. Louis)
Laboratory for the Study of Novel Carbon Materials, will
present an overview of research on (i) fabrication of
periodic carbon nanotube arrays, (ii) nanostressing stage
design and development, and (iii) a novel form of
mechanosynthesis.
- Globus will discuss recent advances in fullerene science
and technology suggesting that it may be possible to
design and build atomically precise programmable machines
composed largely of functionalized fullerenes. Large
numbers of such machines with appropriate
interconnections could conceivably create a material able
to react to the environment and repair itself. (Human
skin is an existing example of such material.) He will
review experimental and theoretical work relating to
these materials, including fullerene gears and high
density memory recently designed and simulated by him and
his NASA colleagues.
Five corporate sponsors have now committed financial support
for the conference:
- AMP Inc.—the
world leader in the design and manufacture of electrical
and electronic connectors and interconnection systems.
- Apple Computer—the
technology-leading computer hardware and software
company. Apple has been a sponsor of previous
conferences.
- Ford Motor Co.—the
world's second largest maker of autos and trucks, with
other interests including plastics and electronics.
- JEOL Inc.—the
Japan-based maker of electron microscopes, mass
spectrometers, and other precision electronic equipment.
- Zyvex—the
first research and development company focused on
developing an assembler for molecular nanotechnology.
Proceedings of the conference will be published in a special
edition of the journal Nanotechnology.
Please refer to the conference brochure for registration
information. For more information, including Web links to all
speakers and registration forms are available online, or
from Foresight Institute at 650.917.1122.
Inside
Foresight
 Before reading this column, flip to the back
page of your newsletter—or if you're reading on the web, go
to the Upcoming Events
calendar—and look over the long list of
nanotechnology-relevant meetings we're tracking.
Meetings per se do not prove that the field is making good
progress, but if you're on the web, take a look at the programs
for these meetings. As I did this, the thought kept recurring:
"things are moving fast." See whether this happens to
you, too.
I'm betting that it will. There's a lot happening on the
technical front, and not just media hype and speculation, though
there is plenty of that as well. But it's clear that
nanotechnology is starting to move into the "Moore's
Law"-like expectation pattern: technical people are
beginning to agree that it's only a matter of time. And by using
Moore's Law itself, you can even project a credible date of
arrival, around 2015. Estimates of that date depend on who's
guessing, but the median guess has dropped fast over the past
three years.
Here it comes
What is to be done? I've been trying this analogy: to me it
feels as though there's a freight train far off, but heading
straight this way. People far and wide are starting to look up,
see the speck on the horizon, and hear the first faint noise of
its coming. More and more of them see that the choice is to jump
on the train, or get left behind. So they're starting to run
toward the tracks.
As supporters of Foresight and IMM,
we're already next to the tracks—sometimes, it feels as
though we at the main office are actually on the tracks, as more
activity funnels through our organizations, and more attention
focuses on the principals as individuals. When that
happens—especially personal media focus—the urge we
feel as technologists is to withdraw. But we're fighting this
urge, and I hope that you as members will fight it as well, if
and when it hits you.
Sooner or later, your colleagues will realize that your interest
in this topic has put you ahead of the crowd, and will ask for
your views and recommendations. For example, we at the Foresight
office get frequent requests for advice that could be labeled
"Business Opportunities of the Singularity,"
to use a term from Vernor
Vinge's fiction to describe a time of drastic change. Such
advice is impossible to give, but there's a bright side to the
question: people are starting to grapple with the coming changes
in terms of foresighted action.
Recently Foresight Chairman Eric
Drexler addressed the annual meeting of the American Bar
Association in a session examining foreseeable major
technological changes. One phrase that kept recurring was
"Feel the fear"—an acknowledgement that the
changes coming are so large that it's hard to think about them
clearly and calmly. But they are at least starting to try.
Foresight crosses the pond
Diligent insistence by Philippe Van Nedervelde in Belgium,
supported by effective action on the part of Christopher Portman,
has resulted in Foresight leasing office space in the Mayfair
district of London, just north of Marble Arch in Hyde Park. It's
clear that we need more interaction with people outside "the
States," and London is a natural crossroads—a Schelling
point for international organizations. With this new facility,
and Philippe in Brussels—home of the European
Union—Foresight will be in position to make a name in
Europe.
We're not ready for visitors; to my knowledge there isn't even
any office furniture there yet. But we're looking forward to
building a strong European team. Next on the agenda: Asia.
New tools for foresight
Thinking clearly about complex issues is hard at best, and
harder yet when we're expecting deep transformations in such
life-and-death fields as medicine and defense. That's why we've
been working on social software, as outlined in Engines of
Creation.
In the last Update,
I described progress on Foresight's Web Enhancement Project,
saying that things were moving fast. In fact, by the time you
received the paper version of that newsletter, this news was
obsolete. I wrote about our efforts to redirect after finding out
about some flaws in the commercial software HyperWave. Since
then, Dave Forrest has succeeded at convincing the company that
they should implement fine-grained linking and give Foresight a
special deal on our license.
But that's not why my column was obsolete. Even before Dave's
success, University of Waterloo student Ka-Ping Yee had coded a
backlink mediator program for us. It works like this: readers log
into Foresight's server and request a particular URL; our server
pulls in the original text, folds in comments by others
(backlinks), then sends the enriched document to the readers. It
looks like the original text, but with the live backlinks
displayed as small colored markers: green for agreement, red for
"taking issue" (i.e. disagreement), and so on. We're
setting up a backlink server.
Since then, Terry Stanley has coded up a version of CritMap, a
graphical display for both the links and backlinks in the
document, enabling the reader to get an overview of a connected
set of documents, rather than hopping from page to page with no
picture of the context. CritMap will be accessed through a button
in the mediator program.
The backlink mediator program runs in parallel with a web server,
and the source code is in the public domain. Foresight's server
will almost surely choke on the traffic as soon as growth takes
off; we need other sites to pick up the software and install it,
later sharing backlink databases. We're not ready to do this yet,
but we will be soon: check the site for the latest information.
Technological foresight: it just leads to work
Ping and Terry are being assisted and advised by other
designers and programmers, some of whom have been working on
hypertext publishing-related projects for decades, at companies
such as Xanadu, AMiX, Memex, Sun, Agorics, and Electric
Communities-or on their own time while employed elsewhere.
Robert Lucky, head of Bellcore, spoke at the Association for
Computing Machinery's 50th Anniversary, saying "If we
couldn't predict the Web, what good are we?" In fact, some did
predict the web—most notably Ted Nelson and Doug Engelbart—which
is why we who were inspired by their vision can see where today's
web needs improvement. See the "Thanks" columns in this and the previous
issue of Update for a very partial list of helpful
programmers and visionaries—many more have helped than we
can list, or even than we know about directly.
Now that backlinks are working, we're turning our attention to
the next urgent task: filtering. Hot spots for discussion will
become a dense thicket of backlinks, of varying content and
quality. We need mechanisms that select which backlinks to
display, using criteria selected and adjusted by the reader. This
is urgent; without it, the system will be almost unusable.
It must be made usable, because we need it. We need it for
discussing the public policy issues confronting us, as the
freight train of nanotechnology heads this way. Existing media
are so disconnected from reality that our policy debates still
spin around a fantasy world in which the future looks far too
much like the past. And that's just not good enough—we might
as well lie down on the tracks.
But with better tools and the best minds working the problem
together, we at Foresight are optimistic that the challenge can
be met—that we can ride the wave of revolutionary
technological change to a safe shore.
Chris Peterson
is Executive Director of Foresight Institute.
From Foresight Update 30, originally
published 1 September 1997.
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