Trying to extrapolate the curve set by past historical events to encompass the coming unprecedented revolution does seem like a bit of a stretch. If the effect is to drum up some more interest in the social consequenses of coming technologies, though, I wouldn't say the effort was wasted, would you?

Um, am I the only one who thinks that trying to fit a curve to this sort of thing is:

• Hard to defend intellectually
• Of minimal practical value
• A distraction from actually trying to do useful things about technological developments and their social results?

The correct Link to the paper is: http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.html

Title says it all.

I tried to follow the link to Robin's presentation and wound up getting snookered by Netscape for Windows into a promotion for a $30 plug-in. Not cool. Anyone care to put up, say, a PDF version? Thanks.