There is a related issue to worry about, however: what happens if the *government* starts putting Vista-like requirements on our machines? The Inducing Infringement Act makes a step in this direction, because a non-complaint machine could be considered an inducement to infringe. The open document initiative of Massachussetts is a step in the opposite direction, because it suggests that any software is usable so long as it interacts properly in public. Overall, we must be vigilant to maintain the freedom we have over our personal and professional machines.

WinModems or high end graphics adapters probably illustrate the most likely effect: a business induces other businesses to use its proprietary specification, based in large part on its predominance in the market, or based on particular tech advantages. Other businesses must chose to follow their competitors or settle for niche markets–the point is most decided they’d do better for themselves by collaborating with the scheme. This limits availability of cheap hardware, or compatibility of high end hardware for other OSs, but life goes on. By now, ethernet has almost eliminated WinModems. Note that this situation arose on to of open standards like V90 and SVGA and that there were never any huge barriers to anyone wanting to manufacture devices implementing them. Most likely, nanotech will make many things much cheaper, even if it makes a few companies obscenely rich.

Secrecy is one way of protecting technology or content, but there are others. If this really got implemented, professional pirates will likely get around this content protection in no time, but it might impede Joe Consumer for a while–i.e. recreational shoplifting will be curbed but organized crime will likely profit all the more for that very reason. The point is it won’t accomplish what it’s promising for content creators very well for very long. As for actual security, all of the stuff that a user wants secured is unprotected by HDCP; malware might not be any more able to pirate your music than you are but it will still be able to do everything you can with your machine.

In all likelihood, the market will balk at hardware that won’t run anything but Vista; machines might have a some Vista-only features, but considering that servers represent a major market and neither need nor would tolerate HDCP but do like cheap, flexible hardware and open source software, these aren’t going to disappear anytime soon.