Just so you know, we were aware when designing the scenario process that the timeline was aggressive. That was intentional, for two reasons. The first is that, although it’s aggressive, it’s not impossible, so thinking through what might bring about MM earlier than expected can be useful. The second, and more important, reason was that the further out we project for the scenario as a whole, the harder it is to make it plausibly useful. We might reasonably argue that MM isn’t likely until (say) 2030, but there’s so much that could happen by 2030 in other technological and social realms that the scenarios wouldn’t really be of much value. Frankly, 2020-2025 is pushing it in some ways.

Still, you’re absolutely right to note that the goal is to stimulate conversation, not make hard & fast predictions.