Comments on: Singularity or Bust http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3264 examining transformative technology Wed, 03 Apr 2013 18:23:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: dz http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3264#comment-859845 dz Fri, 28 Aug 2009 18:34:17 +0000 http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3264#comment-859845 You will see both. Financial super exponentials turn into bubbles because they are based on beliefs, not actual performance. AI/nanotech super exponential will result from recursive improved performance in hardware (perhaps software as well, but probably not since hardware gains will make software improvement too expensive to pursue). The earliest AI will create a financial bubble like we saw with internet stocks and solar power. This bubble will collapse, but the bubble of AI performance will not. Nanotech will follow the same route. You will see both. Financial super exponentials turn into bubbles because they are based on beliefs, not actual performance. AI/nanotech super exponential will result from recursive improved performance in hardware (perhaps software as well, but probably not since hardware gains will make software improvement too expensive to pursue).

The earliest AI will create a financial bubble like we saw with internet stocks and solar power. This bubble will collapse, but the bubble of AI performance will not. Nanotech will follow the same route.

]]> By: John Novak http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3264#comment-859843 John Novak Thu, 27 Aug 2009 18:19:37 +0000 http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3264#comment-859843 Seems like another useful question would be, "How can we tell, if we can tell at all, the difference between a super-exponential bubble, and the transition from one exponent to another as part of a (for lack of a better word) 'phase change?'" I'm not a big believer in Robin Hanson's works, but one of his more interesting and probably more solid notions is that different technological regimes lead to different economic exponential trends. If that's taken as given, then AI and nanotechnology are both strong candidates for exponent-altering technologies. In combination with the work you reference, the question of bubble vs phase change discrimination looms rather large-- whoever works it out correctly stands to gain staggering amounts of wealth earlier than everyone else, and thus gain staggering amounts of influence. Seems like another useful question would be, “How can we tell, if we can tell at all, the difference between a super-exponential bubble, and the transition from one exponent to another as part of a (for lack of a better word) ‘phase change?’”

I’m not a big believer in Robin Hanson’s works, but one of his more interesting and probably more solid notions is that different technological regimes lead to different economic exponential trends. If that’s taken as given, then AI and nanotechnology are both strong candidates for exponent-altering technologies. In combination with the work you reference, the question of bubble vs phase change discrimination looms rather large– whoever works it out correctly stands to gain staggering amounts of wealth earlier than everyone else, and thus gain staggering amounts of influence.

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