Comments on: The Black Box Fallacy http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267 examining transformative technology Wed, 03 Apr 2013 18:23:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: Tim Tylerr http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859885 Tim Tylerr Sun, 06 Sep 2009 17:37:12 +0000 http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859885 I am more inclined to the view that the internet is the beginning of a planetary nervous system, and modeling it as such is genuinely useful - or at least a lot more useful than it is misleading. Anyway, that seems a bit beside the point. This post claims that synthetic intelligence won't go far beyond human level? The evidence? Zipf’s Law based on animal brains so far. It is hardly a compelling case for a low ceiling. I am more impressed by things like the rise in brain-power over time since the Cambrian era, the radical success of the brainiest land creatures, and the formation of huge collective organism-like agents - in the form of companies (and their associated data-centres). I am more inclined to the view that the internet is the beginning of a planetary nervous system, and modeling it as such is genuinely useful – or at least a lot more useful than it is misleading.

Anyway, that seems a bit beside the point. This post claims that synthetic intelligence won’t go far beyond human level? The evidence? Zipf’s Law based on animal brains so far. It is hardly a compelling case for a low ceiling. I am more impressed by things like the rise in brain-power over time since the Cambrian era, the radical success of the brainiest land creatures, and the formation of huge collective organism-like agents – in the form of companies (and their associated data-centres).

]]> By: Tim Tylerr http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859881 Tim Tylerr Sat, 05 Sep 2009 19:30:28 +0000 http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859881 Check the sperm whale brain. Brains on land are more strongly selected against than brains in water. Also, check the scale of Google's data centres - and think how early on we are. Some intelligent machines seem likely to be vast. [Sure -- so is the internet. But drawing a line around it and saying "the internet did this" and "the internet did that" is a hindrance, not a help, to actually understanding what's going on. -jsh] Check the sperm whale brain. Brains on land are more strongly selected against than brains in water. Also, check the scale of Google’s data centres – and think how early on we are. Some intelligent machines seem likely to be vast.
[Sure -- so is the internet. But drawing a line around it and saying "the internet did this" and "the internet did that" is a hindrance, not a help, to actually understanding what's going on. -jsh]

]]> By: ESP | Everything News Portal! http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859873 ESP | Everything News Portal! Fri, 04 Sep 2009 15:09:52 +0000 http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859873 [...] or just the corporations, or the legal or the financial sectors, or even the Internet.  It’s a mistake to anthropomorphize it. It’s the self-organizing system consisting of all of them.  And it is quickly, not slowly, [...] [...] or just the corporations, or the legal or the financial sectors, or even the Internet.  It’s a mistake to anthropomorphize it. It’s the self-organizing system consisting of all of them.  And it is quickly, not slowly, [...]

]]> By: the Foresight Institute » Good enough … intelligence http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859860 the Foresight Institute » Good enough … intelligence Tue, 01 Sep 2009 10:56:36 +0000 http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859860 [...] same seems almost certain to hold with AI. The huge majority of AIs are going to be just about human level in raw intelligence, because [...] [...] same seems almost certain to hold with AI. The huge majority of AIs are going to be just about human level in raw intelligence, because [...]

]]> By: Mind Children | Everything News Portal! http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859842 Mind Children | Everything News Portal! Thu, 27 Aug 2009 11:04:13 +0000 http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859842 [...] As I pointed out yesterday, the internals of a super-AI are likely to look more or less like some organization of human-level [...] [...] As I pointed out yesterday, the internals of a super-AI are likely to look more or less like some organization of human-level [...]

]]> By: the Foresight Institute » Mind Children http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859841 the Foresight Institute » Mind Children Thu, 27 Aug 2009 07:46:13 +0000 http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859841 [...] The Black Box Fallacy [...] [...] The Black Box Fallacy [...]

]]> By: The Black Box Fallacy | Everything News Portal! http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859835 The Black Box Fallacy | Everything News Portal! Wed, 26 Aug 2009 10:01:59 +0000 http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3267#comment-859835 [...] Read more … [...] [...] Read more … [...]

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