Michio Kaku on Assemblers
from the let's-talk-about-this-a-little-sooner dept.
Charles Vollum writes "Michio Kaku was interviewed on Art Bell's May 24th, 2001 "Coast to Coast AM" show. Dr. Kaku was asked about the Gray Goo problem, which had been described in an April 24th interview with Mark Pesce. Basically, his response was not to worry: assemblers are not possible in the near future because we don't know enough to build a self-repicating machine on a table top, let alone at the atomic level. He suggested that "mid-century, we should talk about this again."
Listen to a short clip in MP3, or click here to stream the entire show. (The comments on nanotechnology occur in the show's final minutes.)"
May 25th, 2001 at 4:00 PM
Good Points..
Dr. Kaku brings up some very good points and he has the right ideas about what Nanotechnology truly is (unlike most of the scientific communinty) – however, he believes it will be another half century before an Assembler (Techion System) even becomes remotely possible for us to build. With knowledge doubling every two and half months, and with Moore's Law completely out of the equation, it's safe to assume that this kind of technology will be available in less than ten to fifteen years.
Our robots and our STM machines are primitive now, but things are only getting better quicker than anyone ever imagined. December 21st, 2012 will be the birth of the first Techion System (Assembler) – the Mayans knew what they were doing when they made their calendar.
May 26th, 2001 at 7:12 PM
Re:Good Points..
December 21st, 2012 will be the birth of the first Techion System (Assembler)
i'm slow. what does "Techion System" refer to?
May 26th, 2001 at 10:04 PM
Who is Techion?
On the off chance that "Techion System" is "Techion" on the net, it resolves to "grupo.org". The mail address for "techion.com" ends up at dns.lightrealm.com which appears to be an ISP. So, if Techion System maps to standard internet conventions then they would appear to be a start-up phase company or someone who is sitting on names in the hope of a buy-out.
May 26th, 2001 at 10:40 PM
Re:Good Points..
I would have to disagree. I've read Kaku's "Visions" and was present at a presentation by Kaku at a "Foundation for the Future" conference around 6 months ago (Q3 '00). In "Visions" (which I read in late '97) he clearly demonstrates that he does not understand the Drexlerian nanotechnology vision and his responses to my questions at the conference demonstrated there was not much improvement in his position through late 2000. Now, perhaps as a result of my questions, he has educated himself to a greater degree and today may have a better understanding of the path we are on.
Kaku is totally incorrect with regard to our abilities to construct self-replicating "machines" by "mid-century". We will construct them within the next 2-3 years (I even have a business plan proposing to do just that). They will not however be self-replicating machines of the type commonly understood to cause the Gray Goo scenario. Kaku does not understand molecular biology (to be expected for a string theorist) — self-replicating nano-scale machines exist today and every human individual walking around on the planet contains approximately 40 trillion of them (Nanomedicine, pg 247).
There is no concrete evidence that I am aware of that knowledge is doubling every 2.5 months. My analysis of this point is discussed HERE.
I certainly hope that our assemblers are not based on a Mayan perspective. To the best of my knowledge their culture was based on slave labor and human sacrifices. Kadamose, unfortunately, seems to have a tendency to make unsubstantiated statements and invoke rather discomforting links when stating his opinion. I believe readers would benefit more if he could attempt to be more rigorous in his contributions to the discussions on Nanodot.
May 27th, 2001 at 2:03 AM
Re:Good Points..
Is this business plan posted anywhere for help/critique purposes? It could help you out some if we were allowed to chip in so to speak.
Who is to recieve this business plan?
May 27th, 2001 at 3:03 AM
Re:Good Points..
So I take it that you don't believe that with a MNT Assembler, you would not have the power to be a god – correct? Are you one of those foolish people in the scientific community who believes that Nanotech is going to usher a new Industrial Age?
Also, this is a little embarassing, but the reference 'Techion System' was received from a Psychic I went to a while back. He said it was the machine that would help establish the kingdom of heaven on earth. Doesn't that sound like an Assembler to you?
May 27th, 2001 at 5:18 AM
Re:Good Points..
Having an assembler does you virtually no good unless you have "parts" to assemble. I've pointed this problem out in my Nano@Home proposal. If on the remote chance that you get something like Nano@Home (or a molecular scale design system to assist in designing the nanoscale parts), you are still going to need a higher level CAD system that is able to assist with systems level design (this is roughly equivalent to the functional layout tools used in the current microelectronics industry). When you have all of those things and they are widely available, yes, I do believe that we will have the power of "gods". But the "Here is a precise MNT Assembler and shortly thereafter 'magic happens'" is the part I'm dubious about. When you have all of the components mentioned above — then you will have the beginning of a new Industrial Age. Think about how long it took to get from the invention of the transistor to robust 64 bit processors. One primary reasons a MNT society will not develop "overnight" is that it seems likely that it will require many many thousands of MNT engineers and training those people will take time.
Don't be embarrassed about where you get information — just cite the sources (so I don't spend 15 minutes looking for it on the net) — a "Techion System" seems like a cool name to me. If a Psychic came up with it more power to them. I would certainly consider establishing a kingdom of heaven on Earth one of the possible outcomes of a MNT enabled society.
While "coincidentally" 2012 may be the date that an MNT Assembler becomes available it may have nothing to do with the Mayans. As statisticians are very fond of saying — "Correlation is not causation." You would raise fewer objections by simply stating something like "Wouldn't it be interesting if they announced the invention of an assembler around the same time the Mayan's said the world would end?" [Also, its useful to cite where that idea came from as there is a huge amount of "common knowledge" that is nothing more than an "Urban myth".]
May 27th, 2001 at 5:33 AM
Business Plan
The plan has been reviewed by two of the top four people in nanotechnology (using my own personal rating scale), as well as individuals with degrees in molecular biology, genetics and electrical engineering. They see no technical show stoppers with it though it is ambitious. It is currently in the process of review by "qualified investors" and "VCs".
The focus of the plan is to develop a company that allows a very robust capability in the field of Genome Engineering. If you have some expertise that is orthogonal to those listed above or are a "qualified investor", send me a direct email explaining your qualifications or interest and I'll consider having you review it. For the obvious competitive reasons it isn't available for open review.
May 27th, 2001 at 10:04 AM
Re:Business Plan
Why orthogonal? Why not parallel?
May 27th, 2001 at 2:49 PM
Re:Business Plan
When you are developing a business you want to limit the spread of the ideas until they are protected IP or you have a market base to build on. So you want to limit the meme dispersion to a limited group of "friendly" (though critical) reviewers. If by "parallel", you mean another molecular biologist or another electrical engineer, why would I need more of these? (Other than to raise my own confidence levels.) Angels or VC doing robust "due diligence" will have their own people review the ideas to point out possible flaws they can find. I view orthogonal reviews as more useful because they are less likely to see things the way people who have already reviewed the plan see things and therefore seem more likely to discover flaws that may remain undiscovered.
May 27th, 2001 at 2:55 PM
Corrected URL
The corrected URL for the Nano@Home paper is here.
May 27th, 2001 at 3:29 PM
What about a "Tachyon System"?
Kadamose has commented that the "Techion System" name was revealed to him by a psychic. A quick Google search for "Tachyon" reveals such entities as the "Tachyon Institute for Spirituality and Science" (where the emphasis is presumably on the spirituality at the expense of the science!) as well as a host of other marketing-related uses of the word.
It would be very easy for me to believe that Kadmose's "source" could suggest that the development of a "Tachyon system" by 2012 was feasible (after all it makes complete sense that psychics are receiving their information from the future on Tachyon beams(!)). Of course this has nothing to do with an assembler and much more to do with a robust way for "psychics" to "converse" with their presumed "sources".
Food for thought.
May 31st, 2001 at 10:22 PM
I know from prophesy when Nano will happen!
In the green year of 2009, Lord Zormkid will return from Iscandar and bring forth the scrolls of Ambadoon, written by Darth Vader 11.2 millions arkths ago.
It is predicted that at EXACTLY MIDNIGHT, eastern standard time, on August 29th, scientists will create the first BAZOON (assembler) and everybody will live in harmony and the pathetic capitalists will blow up into a million pieces!!!!!!!!!!!
This was predicted by the great prophet Tephlon Aldehide Benzeene, who lives on Craggy Island with Father Ted, 14 000 years ago, when the Neanderthals build the first interstellar starship. THE MAYANS ARE WRONG! WE, THE FLIPPLESNU'S ARE RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!