Computer system predicts social unrest and civil war
from the Not-quite-Hari-Seldon dept.
A press release from the New Scientist magazine (27 October 2001) reports researchers at Harvard and Ohio State Universities have developed what they term a "conflict barometer" gives a week-by-week measure of the scale of civil unrest. The system is based on a computer program that analyses several thousand news stories from Reuters daily, which classifies events into about 200 categories. These are then used to calculate the proportions of events involving civil protests, repressive government actions and outbreaks of violence. These three factors are fed into an equation to give a nation's "conflict carrying capacity" or CCC. The researchers reported their results in The Journal of Conflict Resolution.
October 25th, 2001 at 10:28 AM
You don't need a computer for that.
It's obvious that when TRUE Nanotech finally exists, not only is there going to be 'civil unrest,there is also going to be a 'war of tradition'. This war will be different that anyone could ever imagine; granted, there will be the same old routines such as killing etc etc, but the war will not be about killing an opponent at all; instead, the war will be about, "should the government still exist with such technology in existence?" – "should the money system still exist because of this technology?" – "should our pathetic beliefs that were handed down to us from our inferior ancestors still exist, even though it's been proven that they're all false and lies?"
These are just some of the reasons the 'War of Tradition' will be fought.
Though we do not need a computer to know this fact, I'm glad that (finally) someone (or something) agrees with me.
October 28th, 2001 at 2:16 PM
Psychohistory
Is this the beginnings of Asimovian Psychohistory? Could it be used to predict further into the future?
December 14th, 2001 at 12:42 AM
Re:You don't need a computer for that.
I don't imagine nanotech's influence being so abrupt that it will cause rioting or rapid social turmoil. It is not some invention that one day will be bestowed upon the masses, who in turn will chaotically react to it simultaneously and in different ways. Instead, much like electronic computing, it will be a method of production (physical rather than informational) that will develop gradually, boost efficiency, and improve the quality of living. Food will become cheaper, but it won't all of a sudden one day be free. Nanotech will be a revolution in foresight and hindsight, but never severe in a "storm the Bastille" kind of way.